Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species.

Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside in the shade of trees. For forest plant species across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate-based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed models using macroclimate and microclimate data at coarser resolution. Additionally, macroclimate-based models introduced a systematic bias in modelled species response curves, which could result in erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important for conservation science, these models were unable to identify warm and cold refugia at the range edges of species distributions. Our study emphasizes the crucial role of microclimate data when SDMs are used to gain insights into biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, particularly given the growing policy and management focus on the conservation of refugia worldwide.

ForestClim-Bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests.

Microclimate research gained renewed interest over the last decade and its importance for many ecological processes is increasingly being recognized. Consequently, the call for high-resolution microclimatic temperature grids across broad spatial extents is becoming more pressing to improve ecological models. Here, we provide a new set of open-access bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests at 25 × 25 m2 resolution.

Global maps of soil temperature.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

Maintaining forest cover to enhance temperature buffering under future climate change.

Forest canopies buffer macroclimatic temperature fluctuations. However, we do not know if and how the capacity of canopies to buffer understorey temperature will change with accelerating climate change. Here we map the difference (offset) between temperatures inside and outside forests in the recent past and project these into the future in boreal, temperate and tropical forests. Using linear mixed-effect models, we combined a global database of 714 paired time series of temperatures (mean, minimum and maximum) measured inside forests vs. in nearby open habitats with maps of macroclimate, topography and forest cover to hindcast past (1970-2000) and to project future (2060-2080) temperature differences between free-air temperatures and sub-canopy microclimates. For all tested future climate scenarios, we project that the difference between maximum temperatures inside and outside forests across the globe will increase (i.e. result in stronger cooling in forests), on average during 2060-2080, by 0.27 ± 0.16 °C (RCP2.6) and 0.60 ± 0.14 °C (RCP8.5) due to macroclimate changes. This suggests that extremely hot temperatures under forest canopies will, on average, warm less than outside forests as macroclimate warms. This knowledge is of utmost importance as it suggests that forest microclimates will warm at a slower rate than non-forested areas, assuming that forest cover is maintained. Species adapted to colder growing conditions may thus find shelter and survive longer than anticipated at a given forest site. This highlights the potential role of forests as a whole as microrefugia for biodiversity under future climate change.

ForestTemp - Sub-canopy microclimate temperatures of European forests.

Ecological research heavily relies on coarse-gridded climate data based on standardized temperature measurements recorded at 2 m height in open landscapes. However, many organisms experience environmental conditions that differ substantially from those captured by these macroclimatic (i.e. free air) temperature grids. In forests, the tree canopy functions as a thermal insulator and buffers sub-canopy microclimatic conditions, thereby affecting biological and ecological processes. To improve the assessment of climatic conditions and climate-change-related impacts on forest-floor biodiversity and functioning, high-resolution temperature grids reflecting forest microclimates are thus urgently needed. Combining more than 1200 time series of in situ near-surface forest temperature with topographical, biological and macroclimatic variables in a machine learning model, we predicted the mean monthly offset between sub-canopy temperature at 15 cm above the surface and free-air temperature over the period 2000-2020 at a spatial resolution of 25 m across Europe. This offset was used to evaluate the difference between microclimate and macroclimate across space and seasons and finally enabled us to calculate mean annual and monthly temperatures for European forest understories. We found that sub-canopy air temperatures differ substantially from free-air temperatures, being on average 2.1°C (standard deviation ± 1.6°C) lower in summer and 2.0°C higher (±0.7°C) in winter across Europe. Additionally, our high-resolution maps expose considerable microclimatic variation within landscapes, not captured by the gridded macroclimatic products. The provided forest sub-canopy temperature maps will enable future research to model below-canopy biological processes and patterns, as well as species distributions more accurately.

Drivers of carbon stocks in forest edges across Europe.

Forests play a key role in global carbon cycling and sequestration. However, the potential for carbon drawdown is affected by forest fragmentation and resulting changes in microclimate, nutrient inputs, disturbance and productivity near edges. Up to 20% of the global forested area lies within 100 m of an edge and, even in temperate forests, knowledge on how edge conditions affect carbon stocks and how far this influence penetrates into forest interiors is scarce. Here we studied carbon stocks in the aboveground biomass, forest floor and the mineral topsoil in 225 plots in deciduous forest edges across Europe and tested the impact of macroclimate, nitrogen deposition and smaller-grained drivers (e.g. microclimate) on these stocks. Total carbon and carbon in the aboveground biomass stock were on average 39% and 95% higher at the forest edge than 100 m into the interior. The increase in the aboveground biomass stock close to the edge was mainly related to enhanced nitrogen deposition. No edge influence was found for stocks in the mineral topsoil. Edge-to-interior gradients in forest floor carbon changed across latitude: carbon stocks in the forest floor were higher near the edge in southern Europe. Forest floor carbon decreased with increasing litter quality (i.e. high decomposition rate) and decreasing plant area index, whereas higher soil temperatures negatively affected the mineral topsoil carbon. Based on high-resolution forest fragmentation maps, we estimate that the additional carbon stored in deciduous forest edges across Europe amounts to not less than 183 Tg carbon, which is equivalent to the storage capacity of 1 million ha of additional forest. This study underpins the importance of including edge influences when quantifying the carbon stocks in temperate forests and stresses the importance of preserving natural forest edges and small forest patches with a high edge-to-interior surface area.